The increase in the biodiesel blend in diesel to 25% by 2035 will require a volume of soybean oil 296% larger than the 4.8 million tons used in 2023 when the blend was at 12%. To achieve this level of production, investments of R$ 52.5 billion will be needed in new soybean crushing plants and biodiesel refineries, according to calculations anticipated by the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) to the press.
To meet the demand, industries will not only need to increase production but also redirect to biodiesel part of the soybean oil volume currently exported. This must happen without compromising the oil supply to the food sector, says Abiove.
The director of economics and regulatory affairs at the entity, Daniel Amaral, estimates that annual demand for biodiesel will reach 21.2 billion liters by 2035. This number takes into account the expected diesel consumption of 86.2 billion liters per year and the use of soybean oil to produce 70% of the biofuel in the country, the same current percentage. The other 30% is made from beef tallow and other raw materials.
In this scenario, biodiesel production will consume 19 million tons of soybean oil per year. To reach this volume, it will be necessary to install 47 soybean crushing plants and 33 biodiesel refineries. The country currently has 129 crushing units and 59 soybean oil refining and packaging factories. "The total investment in the sector will be much larger, considering fleet renewal and planting, among other actions," says Amaral.
The economist dismisses the hypothesis of increased demand putting pressure on the market. "Demand for the food industry is quite stable. Furthermore, the current harvest is already much larger than the projected consumption for 2035," he adds.
For now, the additional demand for oil for biodiesel has been offset by a reduction in exports. In 2023, Brazil exported 2.6 million tons. This year, the volume is expected to drop to 1.15 million tons, according to Abiove.
Soybean oil consumption in the country in 2024 is expected to be 9.7 million tons, or 1 million more than in 2023. Of this total, the food industry will consume 3.7 million tons. The remainder will be used to produce biodiesel.
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