Recently, there has been a significant increase in fertilizer prices, especially for Nitrogen (N) and Phosphorus (P), while Potassium (K) prices have remained stable due to robust supply and satisfactory import volumes. The rise in Nitrogen prices is attributed to supply shortages from Egypt, a major global producer facing difficulties with natural gas shortages for urea production. Although Egypt is not currently a main supplier of urea to Brazil, local restrictions since May 20th have increased the price of urea CFR Brazil by 21%, from USD 305/t to USD 370/t. The absence of China from exports has also exacerbated the global urea shortage.
According to the report, MAP (Monoammonium Phosphate) prices have risen due to both internal and external factors, with Brazilian imports up to May being 30% below the previous year, while demand for the summer crop season is increasing. Globally, China and India are influencing the market, with China out of MAP and urea exports, while India is expected to resume purchases soon.
This rise in fertilizer prices, without a proportional increase in grain prices, is harming the exchange ratio for producers, especially for corn. Prices are expected to remain high in the short term due to the imbalance between supply and demand in the MAP and urea markets. Brazilian demand remains robust, and India may enter the market soon due to low fertilizer stock levels. The information was released in a report by Itaú BBA.
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