Brazilian soybean crushers are well-stocked for the next two months, but they will need to ramp up their purchasing significantly to meet their needs until the end of the year. Local soybean prices are expected to be supported, making it more attractive for farmers to sell soybeans to domestic crushers rather than exporting them.
Hedgepoint Global Markets provided an analysis of the current and future soybean market in Brazil, noting that by the end of June, 26.9 million tons of soybeans had been crushed. Based on the average figures from the last three years, the crushing for July is estimated at 4.8 million tons, bringing the total to 31.7 million tons by the end of July—the second-highest since 2017.
Brazil has also exported 75.4 million tons of soybeans by July, with a projection of 92.4 million tons by year-end. This leaves 44.4 million tons available in the country as of August 1st.
Crushers need to be aggressive in their purchases, as they are currently covered only for the next two months. To meet the projected crushing requirements until December, the industry needs an additional 12.4 million tons, with a safety stock of 20.9 million tons.
Given the current pace of buying and the need for additional soybeans, local prices are expected to rise. This situation could make it more lucrative for farmers to sell to crushers rather than for export, especially as Brazil enters its corn export season. The competition for the remaining soybeans could further drive up prices.
Comentarios