Soybean prices started the week with significant gains on the Chicago Board of Trade, rising between 14 and 19 points on Monday morning (22nd). By 7:25 AM (Brasília time), August futures were trading at $11.11 and November at $10.55 per bushel. Soy futures were boosted by over 2% increases in soy meal, more than 1% gains in soy oil and corn, along with advancements in wheat.
The market's rise comes despite the weekend's major news of Joe Biden announcing his withdrawal from the U.S. presidential race, positioning Donald Trump closer to the White House. "Perhaps the two assets most sensitive to the U.S. election scenarios and the China-U.S. relationship are soybeans on the CBOT and the CSI300. Will China buy more or less soybeans in the short term due to this change in scenario?"
In addition to political factors, fundamental factors are also in focus, especially the weather in the U.S. Attention is on the forecasts for the coming days, with the possibility of hotter and drier conditions in the American Midwest.
"Weekend rains were limited to the central and western Corn Belt, with the eastern side predominantly dry but without any stress due to the good water reserves throughout the region, at least for now.
However, the European model's climate forecasts for the next 10 days indicate much below normal rainfall for the entire Corn Belt, except for Wisconsin, northern Iowa, and Minnesota, which should receive no more than 50 mm of rain for the entire period," reports Ginaldo Sousa, general director of Grupo Labhoro. The executive explains that the market is also closely monitoring the behavior of funds, which continue to hold large short positions.
"We emphasize that, at this moment, there is no fundamental factor that could elevate or even reverse CBOT prices unless there is a reduction in supply, as demand feels very comfortable and is much lower than the available global supply," adds Sousa.
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