In its first estimation for 2024/25, the agency predicts a global production increase with a Brazilian boost.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) continues to diverge from analysts' predictions regarding soybean crop projections for the world's largest producer and exporter, Brazil.
In its monthly global supply and demand report released this Friday (10/5), the agency estimated that Brazil's harvest in 2023/24 is expected to reach 154 million tons. However, most private consultancies anticipate a crop below 150 million, and given USDA's "conservative" stance in making cuts to the crop, it was expected to indicate a production of 152.63 million tons in this month's report.
The 155 million-ton figure, which was already overestimated, should undergo adjustments not only due to the drought faced by some crops in Brazil's Midwest but also due to losses already considered certain in Rio Grande do Sul, following recent rains observed in the state.
Contrary to market expectations, USDA also maintained its projection for Argentina's production at 50 million tons, while the average bet was for a reduction, indicating 49.61 million tons.
Regarding the U.S. crop, another important data point for price formation was the country's ending stocks, which remained unchanged at 9.26 million tons, while a slight downward adjustment was expected to 9.23 million.
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