#USDA Holds Steady on Projected Soybean Oil Utilization in Biofuel, Adjusts Downward Outlook for Soybean Oil Prices
For the upcoming 2023-24 soybean season, expectations include a decline in soybean exports and an increase in ending stocks. Projections indicate soybean exports at 1.72 billion bushels, a reduction of 35 million compared to the previous month. This decrease is attributed to sluggish shipments in January, coupled with robust competition from Brazil. With crushing levels remaining unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 315 million bushels, reflecting an increase of 35 million.
The USDA anticipates a substantial increase in soybean oil dedicated to biofuel production for 2023-’24, reaching 13 billion pounds. This marks an upward trend from 12.491 billion pounds in 2022-’23 and 10.379 billion pounds in 2021-’22.
In terms of pricing, the U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023-‘24 is forecasted at $12.65 per bushel, a 10-cent decrease from the previous month. Soybean meal prices are expected to remain stable at $380 per short ton, while soybean oil prices are projected at 51 cents per per pound, down by 3 cents.
Global soybean supply and demand forecasts for 2023-‘24 include amplified beginning stocks, diminished production, reduced exports, and augmented ending stocks compared to the previous month. Notable factors contributing to this shift include increased beginning stocks, higher production in Brazil for 2022-‘23, reduced production in Brazil for 2023-‘24 due to adverse weather conditions, and altered export and import figures for the United States, Brazil, and Vietnam.
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